Playoff Odds
Projected playoff probabilities for every team
Based on standings as of May 9, 2026
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | Record | GB | Playoff Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET Pistons | 60-22 | - |
99.9%
|
| 2 | BOS Celtics | 56-26 | - |
99.9%
|
| 3 | NYK Knicks | 53-29 | - |
99.9%
|
| 4 | CLE Cavaliers | 52-30 | - |
99.9%
|
| 5 | TOR Raptors | 46-36 | - |
99.9%
|
| 6 | ATL Hawks | 46-36 | - |
99.9%
|
| 7 | ORL Magic | 45-37 | 0.5 |
84.6%
|
| 8 | PHI 76ers | 45-37 | 0.5 |
78.7%
|
| 9 | CHA Hornets | 44-38 | 1.0 |
71.8%
|
| 10 | MIA Heat | 43-39 | 1.5 |
64.0%
|
| 11 | MIL Bucks | 32-50 | 7.0 |
0.1%
|
| 12 | CHI Bulls | 31-51 | 7.5 |
0.1%
|
| 13 | BKN Nets | 20-62 | 13.0 |
0.1%
|
| 14 | IND Pacers | 19-63 | 13.5 |
0.1%
|
| 15 | WAS Wizards | 17-65 | 14.5 |
0.1%
|
Western Conference
| # | Team | Record | GB | Playoff Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OKC Thunder | 64-18 | - |
99.9%
|
| 2 | SAS Spurs | 62-20 | - |
99.9%
|
| 3 | DEN Nuggets | 54-28 | - |
99.9%
|
| 4 | LAL Lakers | 53-29 | - |
99.9%
|
| 5 | HOU Rockets | 52-30 | - |
99.9%
|
| 6 | MIN Timberwolves | 49-33 | - |
99.9%
|
| 7 | PHX Suns | 45-37 | 2.0 |
84.6%
|
| 8 | LAC Clippers | 42-40 | 3.5 |
78.6%
|
| 9 | POR Trail Blazers | 42-40 | 3.5 |
70.4%
|
| 10 | GSW Warriors | 37-45 | 6.0 |
60.8%
|
| 11 | NOP Pelicans | 26-56 | 11.5 |
0.1%
|
| 12 | DAL Mavericks | 26-56 | 11.5 |
0.1%
|
| 13 | MEM Grizzlies | 25-57 | 12.0 |
0.1%
|
| 14 | UTA Jazz | 22-60 | 13.5 |
0.1%
|
| 15 | SAC Kings | 22-60 | 13.5 |
0.1%
|
Probability Tiers
Clinched (90%+)
High (70-89%)
Medium (40-69%)
Low (10-39%)
Very Low (<10%)
Probabilities are calculated based on current standings, win percentage, net rating, and remaining games. Top 6 seeds in each conference make the playoffs directly; seeds 7-10 compete in the Play-In Tournament.
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