Super Bowl LX Predictions

I don’t have a hat in this ring. My team, Carolina Panthers, miraculously made it to the playoffs, only to be immediately eliminated.

If I’m being honest, I was hoping for different teams. Something we have never seen. Like a Bills vs Bears. Or Texans vs Packers.

But here we are. It will be a Super Bowl XLIX rematch. It has been over a decade since that fateful night. The Seahawks were four points down. With less than 30 seconds left in the game. They were in the red zone, very close to scoring. That would push them into the lead. They were so close.

Then, the unexpected. Malcolm Butler made an interception in the end zone, causing a turnover.

Later that year, I ran into Landon Cohen, one of the Seahawks’ defensive tackles, in Spartanburg, SC. He was still salty about how everything went down. I’m sure that is true for all Seahawks fans.

Much like 2015, the Seahawks are the favorites. Here is the breakdown.

Predictions¶

Let’s get this out of the way.

PREDICTED WINNER: Seattle Seahawks
Predicted Spread: SEA -1.7

What does the spread mean? With a -1.7 spread, the game is going to be very close. That I’m fully expecting it.

For full disclosure, the model confidence is 59.7%. As a data scientist, depending on the situation, I consider that fairly low. If this were a business decision and my model had that level of confidence, I would tell the stakeholders to hold it.

Why is the level of confidence so low? By nature, sports have many intangibles. But when it comes to a Super Bowl, the player’s emotional state is more unpredictable than ever. Remember Travis Kelce’s assault on Andy Reed.

Beyond that, there are way too many components and factors that are very difficult to account for. Even with a supercomputer and terabytes of relevant data, getting the model to a higher accuracy and confidence is very difficult.

Team Comparison¶

Let’s look at this season’s previous games and see how each team fared.

Other Score Predictions¶

— Final Score Prediction —
SEA 22 - NE 20

— Halftime Score Prediction —
SEA 10 - NE 9
Halftime Leader: SEA

— First to Score —
Team: NE (61.5%)
Type: TD

— Total Points —
Predicted Total: 42.1
Over/Under 47.5: UNDER

— Scoring Breakdown —
Total Touchdowns: 6
Total Field Goals: 2

— Turnover Predictions —
SEA turnovers: 1.2
NE turnovers: 1.2

— Sack Prediction —
Total Sacks in Game: 5.1

Conclusion¶

Again, I don’t really have a dog in this fight, and I’m not a gambler. My money is nowhere.

The Seahawks have a better defense while the Patriots have a better attack. Do they level out?

If I was pressed against the wall and asked who I thought it would win, I would go with Seahawks. I think that both teams are pretty well matched and it will be a tight game. In fact, I believe the game will be decided in the final two minutes.