The predictions are not and should not be used for gambling. This is a passion project that I decided to share with everyone.

Due to the All-Star break, this will be a short week. There are some good games coming up. You can check them out at our dashboard.

Two weeks ago, I was excited about the accuracy. But this week was kind of brutal. We dropped drastically from the high 70s.

Ironically, the games with low confidence in the results have had the best outcome. And the high confidence ones have the worst accuracy.

The overall results were:

High Confidence: 50% (14/28)
Medium Confidence: 54% (7/13)
Low Confidence: 63% (5/8)
Overall Average: 53.1% (26/49)

High Confidence Gotten Wrong

Let’s talk about the high-confidence games that turned out to be wrong.

Date Matchup Final Score Predicted Winner Actual Winner Confidence Score Diff Spread
Feb 08 NYK @ BOS 111-89 BOS NYK 78% 22 BOS -5.0
Feb 08 LAC @ MIN 115-96 MIN LAC 79% 19 MIN -5.3
Feb 07 HOU @ OKC 112-106 OKC HOU 82% 6 OKC -6.1
Feb 07 PHI @ PHX 109-103 PHX PHI 86% 6 PHX -7.4
Feb 06 NOP @ MIN 119-115 MIN NOP 94% 4 MIN -11.0
Feb 05 WAS @ DET 126-117 DET WAS 92% 9 DET -9.9
Feb 05 GSW @ PHX 101-97 PHX GSW 81% 4 PHX -5.8

The biggest one for me this week was the Golden State Warriors’ win over Phoenix. My surprise was not the victory itself, but it was the prediction. Without the algorithm, I would have guessed the Golden State Warriors.

Along the same lines, after seeing the Celtics pull out the win over the Heat, I was certain they would make good on my algorithm. But they didn’t show up to the game on Sunday.

Another surprise was the Rockets beating the Thunder.

Toss-up This Week

Let’s talk about the toss-up this week.

Date Time Away Away % Home Home % Pick Model Conf Margin Spread
02/09 7:00 PM DET 50% CHA 50% CHA 90% 0% CHA -0.0
02/09 7:30 PM CHI 56% BKN 44% CHI 94% 13% CHI -1.0
02/09 9:00 PM CLE 54% DEN 46% CLE 98% 8% CLE -0.6
02/09 10:00 PM PHI 54% POR 46% PHI 96% 7% PHI -0.6
02/11 8:00 PM POR 54% MIN 46% POR 82% 7% POR -0.6

The interesting one is Pistons vs Hornets. They are dead at 50/50. You have the Hornets coming off a 9-game winning streak. They are sitting nicely in 10th place.

Another good one is Cavs vs Nuggets. I think Denver is a better team in terms of numbers. But we shall see the results.

Check out our Dashboard for more games.