Let me start with a disclaimer.

The predictions are not and should not be used for gambling. This is a passion project that I decided to share with everyone.

Now, with that off my chest, let’s talk about this week’s predictions. I’ve been tracking players and games for some time now and have slowly developed an algorithm that estimates a team’s win probability.

You will notice that some of the predictions are no-brainers. Like Detroit beating Brooklyn. But then you have Cleveland at Portland. Portland already won once. Cleveland has more depth and a better team, in my opinion. But when it comes to a head-to-head, it is a flip of a coin.

In some cases, you will see that the confidence level. That’s because there are many factors that influence the teams. In such cases, it is hard to decipher who will win or lose.

For the last 7 games, the accuracy is around 70%. Which is shocking to me. In a good way. However, for the season, I’m right at 64.2% or 482 out of 751. That’s not too bad.

High Confidence Gotten Wrong

Last week, we had a few surprises.

Date Matchup Final Score Predicted Winner Actual Winner Confidence Score Diff Spread
Feb 01 LAC @ PHX 117-93 PHX LAC 89% 24 PHX -8.3
Jan 31 ATL @ IND 124-129 ATL IND 84% 5 ATL -6.8
Jan 29 OKC @ MIN 111-123 OKC MIN 75% 12 OKC -4.5
Jan 28 NYK @ TOR 119-92 TOR NYK 85% 27 TOR -7.0
Jan 28 ATL @ BOS 117-106 BOS ATL 86% 11 BOS -7.2
Jan 28 CHI @ IND 110-113 CHI IND 76% 3 CHI -4.5
Jan 28 ORL @ MIA 133-124 MIA ORL 87% 9 MIA -7.6

Looking at the list, a couple of games stand out. I want to start with ATL @ IND. It was a tight game pretty much the whole time, but ATL couldn’t pull it off. While we are talking about ATL. Jalen Johnson had a good game with 19 points and 14 rebounds. Honestly, I was not expecting that at all.

Another one I didn’t expect was the Pacers beating the Bulls. Though they won 7 of the last 12 games, they are still trailing in last place with only 13 wins.

Toss-up This Week

According to the algorithm, we have seven toss-up games.

Date Time Away Away % Home Home % Pick Model Conf Margin Spread
02/02 10:00 PM PHI 55% LAC 45% PHI 81% 10% PHI -0.8
02/03 7:00 PM UTA 57% IND 43% UTA 80% 14% UTA -1.1
02/04 7:30 PM MIN 55% TOR 45% MIN 95% 10% MIN -0.8
02/04 10:30 PM CLE 43% LAC 57% LAC 96% 15% LAC -1.2
02/08 12:30 PM NYK 44% BOS 56% BOS 90% 12% BOS -1.0
02/09 7:00 PM DET 41% CHA 59% CHA 97% 17% CHA -1.4
02/09 7:30 PM CHI 51% BKN 49% CHI 97% 1% CHI -0.1

The Pacers are coming from a two-game win streak, and they might add a third one. At the same time, Jazz is on a six-game loss streak.

The game I will be looking forward to watching is the NYK @ BOS.